The ‘Queen of the Internet’, Mary Meeker, published her first Trends report since 2019 - this time on AI. These are my favourite slides from the massive 340-page document capturing the unprecedented transformation AI is driving across technical, financial, social, physical & geopolitical landscapes.
Some striking themes from the report:
𝟭. 𝗨𝗻𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗲𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗦𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗲 • ChatGPT reached 800M weekly active users in just 17 mths • ChatGPT hit 365B annual searches in 2 years vs Google's 11 years
𝟮. 𝗠𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗖𝗮𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗗𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗲 𝗨𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗥𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝘀 • Big Six tech companies' CapEx surged 63% YoY to $212B in 2024 • AI model training costs exploding from ~$100M to potentially $10B • OpenAI burning through capital - $5B in compute expenses vs $3.7B revenue • High valuations (OpenAI at 33x revenue) despite losses
𝟯. 𝗗𝗿𝗮𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝗖𝗼𝘀𝘁-𝗣𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 • AI inference costs plummeted 99.7% in two years • NVIDIA GPUs now use 105,000x less energy per token than 10 years ago • Yet total spending increasing due to Jevons Paradox - as costs fall, usage explodes
𝟰. 𝗨𝗦-𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗮 𝗔𝗜 𝗥𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗳𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 • China rapidly closing the gap with models like DeepSeek achieving similar performance at lower cost • China has more industrial robots than the rest of the world combined • 83% of Chinese citizens view AI positively vs only 39% of Americans
𝟱. 𝗔𝗜 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗵𝘆𝘀𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗹𝗱 • Waymo captured 27% of San Francisco rideshare market in 20 months • Tesla's Full Self-Driving miles increased 100x over 33 months • AI being deployed in agriculture, mining, defence with measurable impact
𝟲. 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗸 𝗥𝗲𝘃𝗼𝗹𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗔𝗰𝗰𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 • AI job postings up 448% while non-AI IT jobs down 9% over 7 years • Companies like Shopify and Duolingo making AI use mandatory
𝟳. 𝗢𝗽𝗲𝗻 𝗦𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗲 𝘃𝘀 𝗖𝗹𝗼𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗲𝘁𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 • Open-source models rapidly closing performance gaps • Meta's Llama downloads reached 1.2B in 8 months • Developers gravitating toward open models for cost and flexibility
𝟴. 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗿𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗕𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗕𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗹𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗰𝗸 • Data centers now consuming 1.5% of global electricity • xAI built a 750,000 sq ft data center in just 122 days
𝟵. 𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗕𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹𝘀 𝗘𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴 • Specialized AI companies achieving explosive growth (e.g., Cursor from $1MM to $300MM ARR in 25 months) • Both horizontal platforms and vertical solutions competing for dominance • Enterprise adoption accelerating with 50% of S&P 500 discussing AI on earnings calls
𝟭𝟬. 𝗔𝗜-𝗙𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗲𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗡𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝟮.𝟲 𝗕𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗨𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘀 • Satellite internet (Starlink at 5MM+ subscribers) enabling connectivity • New internet users will experience AI as their primary interface